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CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT ARCHIVE

The Strategic Intelligence Report (SIR) is produced weekly, apart from market holiday weeks. It contains the Intermarket View (examining markets through the lens of price relationships), the Macro View (big picture elements impacting markets), the Tactical View (updates on current positions) and the portfolio (position descriptions with analysis links).

Click here or the header link above to access the Strategic Intelligence Report archive — or click for one of the recent SIR issues below.

SIR 160: THAT WAS WEIRD (PDF | ARCHIVE) In SIR 160 — That Was Weird — we look back at the extremely weird year that was 2017… revisit the folly of Bitcoin (and explain why it could be the most destructive bubble of all time)… and examine what’s behind a collapsing silver price and other positions. Click to access

SIR 159: IN PRAISE OF GENERAL CONDITIONS (PDF | ARCHIVE) In SIR 159 — In Praise of General Conditions — we revisit the importance of Livermore’s “General Conditions” concept, and apply it via acronym to the Intermarket View… ruminate on Bitcoin, currencies and pot odds… and consider the impact of the GOP tax cuts and an increasingly compelling Tesla short. Click to access

SIR 158: THE TROUBLE WITH AUTHORITARIANS (PDF | ARCHIVE) In SIR 158 — The Trouble With Authoritarians — we look at the Bitcoin drop (and a potentially dangerous Bitcoin futures scenario)… revisit the possibility of a crisis-inducing liquidity test… explain the trouble with authoritarian leaders (why they are bad for valuations)… and revisit the case for betting against Brexit and Tesla (and in favor of USD). Click to access

SIR 157: THE VOLATILITY SELLERS (PDF | ARCHIVE) In SIR 157 — The Volatility Sellers — we consider some new findings from the IMF that almost made us spit out our coffee… explain why the Mueller investigation kicked into a whole new gear this week (with moves that were tactically brilliant)… and explain why “this time is not different” (though the temptation to assume so is strong). Click to access

SIR 156: SOVEREIGNS AND THE PSYCHOSPHERE (PDF | ARCHIVE) In SIR 156 — Sovereigns and the Psychosphere — we revisit the bond market meltdown of 1994 (the conditions of which are now being repeated)… dig into the psychosphere, a battleground Russia has focused on since 1999… and look at various currency opportunities, largely driven by populism. Click to access

SIR 155: FILTER BUBBLE (PDF | ARCHIVE) In SIR 155 — Filter Bubble — we look at the rationale behind Bitcoin and the reason why bubbles will be bigger in the information age… check in with the horrors in Washington (and the risks posed by Trump to markets)… and dig into opportunities present in currency markets at moment. Click to access

SIR 154: FACEBOOK AND THE PARADOX OF TOLERANCE (PDF | ARCHIVE) In SIR 154 — Facebook and the Paradox of Tolerance — we note the record-breaking extremes of the current liquidity and complacency mania… explain why Facebook (and Silicon Valley in general) is headed for a social media reckoning… and weigh more liquidity evidence against The Economist’s (probably early) warning cover. Click to access

CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE TRADING ANALYSIS ARCHIVE

Trading analysis write-ups, often a single-page PDF with charts for fast consumption, are produced on a real-time basis when new trading setups or audible position adjustments occur (and typically broadcast prior to market open).

Click here or the header link above to access the Trading Analysis archive — or click for one of the recent Analysis write-ups below.

We’ll Re-Short High Yield On a Break of the Jan 10th Lows (PDF | ARCHIVE)

Tesla remains a compelling short for 2018 (PDF | ARCHIVE)

Short setups in JNK, HYG, adjusting EMHY (PDF | ARCHIVE)

Ready to short biotech on downtrend pattern and surprise reversal (PDF | ARCHIVE)

Ready to short EM high yield on V-bottom failure (PDF | ARCHIVE)

Taking half profits on TAN on sharp reversal (PDF | ARCHIVE)

Ready to short EURUSD (and tighten EURJPY) as Germany faces political crisis (PDF | ARCHIVE)

Shorting more TSLA on breakdown if truck hype fades (PDF | ARCHIVE)

CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE TRADING PSYCHOLOGY ARCHIVE

Trading psychology is a deep and rich exploratory topic, with benefits from higher levels of emotional control and self-awareness, to insights into crowd psychology and behavioral market analysis.

Click here or the header link above to access the Trading Psychology archive — or click for one of the recent Psychology write-ups below.

TRADING AND THE HUNTER-GATHERER CONNECTION (PDF | ARCHIVE)
The human body is an extraordinary machine, the mind even moreso. To maximize performance — and thus maximize the odds of success in trading — we need to understand the origins of the machine, why it functions the way it does, and the problems caused by the mismatch between our formative biological environment and the modern world.Click to access

FROM FIGHT OR FLIGHT TO THINK OR SINK (PDF | ARCHIVE)
After acknowledging the mismatch between the modern world and our formative biological environment, and the implications of such for the mind-body system, one of the most important adjustments to make is a mental software upgrade from Fight or Flight to Think or Sink. Click to access

The Mistake We Made Covering the Trump Spectacle – and Lessons Learned (PDF)

Gaslighting, the Asch Conformity Study, and Crowd Psychology Impacts (PDF)

Rerouting Processing Centers (LINK | PDF | ARCHIVE)

CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE METAPROCESS ARCHIVE

Metaprocess is our proprietary method for using linguistic performance management (LPM) and radical cognitive behavioral therapy (RCBT) to not only enhance personal performance, but to generate outlier-level super-performance, not just in trading but in life overall.

Click here or the header link above to access the Metaprocess archive — or click for one of the recent Metaprocess write-ups below.

METAPROCESS — THE GATEWAY TO SUPERHUMAN PERFORMANCE (PDF | ARCHIVE) In this updated and revised introduction to Metaprocess, with new clarity via explanatory material and diagrams, we explain what Metaprocess is, why it works, and how it can enable superhuman performance. Click to access

METAPROCESS: THE CORE MANTRAS AND ACRONYMS (PDF | ARCHIVE) The seven mantras, and their associated acronyms, are at the heart of Metaprocess in terms of day-to-day application and linguistic performance management (LPM). The mantras span the areas of vigilance, passion, discipline, courage, focus, transcendence, and detachment — rounding out crucial areas of behavioral change for superhuman performance. Click to access

CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE SPECIAL REPORTS ARCHIVE

Special Reports are topical dives into specific market areas — e.g. a country, currency, commodity, industry or company — and deeper looks into events, themes and trends that could impact markets and trading opportunities. Our Special Reports methodology is evolving and we’ll be producing more of them in future.

Click here or the header link above to access the Special Reports archive — or click for one of the recent Special Reports below.

BUILDING WEALTH WITH B-52 STOCKS (PDF | ARCHIVE) One of the most lucrative endeavors in markets is also one of the hardest — generating large returns on large volumes of capital. Crack that nut, and you can build serious wealth. One of the best ways to do it is via “B-52 Stocks.” This report explains how and why. Click to access

PROFIT FROM SHORT SELLING WITH ICARUS STOCKS (PDF | ARCHIVE) When a high-flying growth stock falls from grace, the downtrend can be brutal (and irreversible). Learning to identify these “Icarus Stocks” in advance serves two purposes: Highlighting attractive short candidates, and learning “when to sell” on the long side of the portfolio. Click to access

CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE MERCENARY MACRO LINKS ARCHIVE

The Mercenary Macro Links, produced each trading day, aggregate news and data on global markets into an easily skimmable summary, divided up by categories, along with the day’s thought-provoking ideas, opinions and insights from various sources.

Click here or the header link above to access the Macro Links archive — or click for one of the recent Macro Links issues below.

Macro Links Fri Jan 12th – “Shithole Countries” (LINK | ARCHIVE)

Macro Links Thurs Jan 11th – Battered Bond Market (LINK | ARCHIVE)

Macro Links Wed Jan 10th – “Someone Has Already Been Killed” (LINK | ARCHIVE)

Macro Links Tues Jan 9th – Vanishing Crypto (LINK | ARCHIVE)

Macro Links Mon Jan 8th – Hot Enough to Melt Asphalt (LINK | ARCHIVE)

Macro Links Fri Jan 5th – Essence of a Bubble (LINK | ARCHIVE)

Macro Links Thurs Jan 4th – Dumb as a Brick (LINK | ARCHIVE)

Macro Links Wed Jan 3rd – Button-Measuring Contest (LINK | ARCHIVE)

Macro Links Tues Jan 2nd – When Nothing is Cheap (LINK | ARCHIVE)

Macro Links Fri Dec 29th – A Dark Year For Democracy (LINK | ARCHIVE)

CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE TRADING METHODOLOGY ARCHIVE

Pyramiding (adding to positions), risk management, portfolio balance, timely use of leverage, normalizing position volatility — these are examples of crucial methodology topics that allow for success in trading.

Click here or the header link above to access the Trading Methodology archive — or click for one of the recent Methodology write-ups below.

INTRODUCTION TO INTEGRATED MACRO ANALYSIS (PDF | ARCHIVE) The essential aspects of macro analysis as directly applied to trading. From George Soros to Michael Marcus to Paul Tudor Jones, concepts like three-dimensional portfolio structure, horizontal and vertical exposure, the integration of “top down” and “bottom up,” and more. Click to access

A General Theory of Risk Points (PDF)

The Best Hedges are Size and Cash (LINK | PDF | ARCHIVE)

The Beauty of the Breakout Trade (LINK | PDF | ARCHIVE)

You Can’t Save a Million (LINK | PDF | ARCHIVE)

Targeting a Million Dollars (LINK | PDF | ARCHIVE)

Trade For Experience and Scale (LINK | PDF | ARCHIVE)

CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE PERSONAL PRODUCTIVITY ARCHIVE

Productive use of time and energy is a must for every market participant, be they independent trader or investor, hedge fund manager, or institutional asset allocator, and finding ways to increase productivity can enhance total trading performance.

Click here or the header link above to access the Personal Productivity archive — or click for one of the recent Productivity write-ups below.

TRADE FROM HOME – 15 KEYS TO SUCCESS (PDF) Trading from a home office, or a home-based environment, has its advantages and its pitfalls. There are a number of steps you can take to increase your odds of strong performance. This report contains fifteen keys for doing just that. Click to access

Productive Laminar Flow (LINK | PDF | ARCHIVE)

Levels of Distributed Cognition (LINK | PDF | ARCHIVE)

Reducing Cognitive Load (LINK | PDF | ARCHIVE)

Pathways and Probabilities (LINK | PDF | ARCHIVE)

Key Benefits of Structured Routine (LINK | PDF)

CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE THEORY AND MODELS ARCHIVE

General theory and mental models encompass a range of ideas for deeper understanding across a wide range of topics, from economics to markets to probability and human behavior.

Click here or the header link above to access the Theory and Models archive — or click for one of the recent Theory and Models write-ups below.

THE RISK-ADJUSTED PROFIT THEOREM (PDF | ARCHIVE) What do high stakes cash game poker and trading have in common? The need to think in probabilities, for one thing. The Risk-Adjusted Profit Theorem is an elegant and powerful tool for applying probability analysis to strategic decision making. Click to access

THE BOYDIAN FRAMEWORK (PDF | ARCHIVE) John Boyd is considered one of the greatest fighter pilots of all time, the greatest military strategist of the 20th century, and the father of the F-15 and F-16. His theories and insights forever changed aerial and military combat and have excellent application to trading, providing a framework through which to view markets. Click to access

CLICK HERE TO ACCESS THE PREMIUM REPORTS ARCHIVE

Premium Reports are collections of valuable trading resources, interviews with top traders, in-depth analysis of unique topics, deep investigative dives into specific areas of markets and trading, insights from classic trading literature, and more.

Click here or the header link above to access the Premium Reports archive — or click one of the Premium Report links below.

THE MERCENARY TRADING QUOTES LIBRARY (PDF) At more than 120 pages, this is one of the most comprehensive trading quote libraries ever assembled. Also covering broad topics like inspiration, perseverance, excellence, life practices, adaptability, wisdom, and more. Click to access

SELECTED QUOTES FROM REMINISCENCES (PDF) Widely considered the best trading book of all time — and still as relevant today as the day it was published in 1923 — this report contains seventeen pages of selected Reminiscences of a Stock Operator quotes, for a quick and condensed dose of pure Jesse Livermore. Click to access

OPM 101: THE MERCENARY HEDGE FUND STARTUP GUIDE (PDF) If you are truly a successful trader — or on your way to becoming one — the best way to leverage your skill could be starting a hedge fund. Our “OPM 101” guide takes you through all the hedge fund startup basics, from fund structures, to offshore entities, to capital raising, client marketing, administrative requirements, and more. Click to access

INTERVIEW WITH A TRADING LEGEND (PDF) Peter Brandt, author of Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader, may be the greatest trader you’ve never heard of. We consider him a legend thanks to his stunning performance – a thirty-year track record (audited) of 41.6% compound returns. In this in-depth “Market Wizards” style interview, you’ll find out all about how Peter got started in trading… how he handled his early “going bust” experiences… the first big move that really put him in business as a trader… his experience with the legendary Commodities Corp… his views on risk management… how he handles adversity… how he grades himself… and much more. Click to access

THE DEEP ALPHA INTERVIEW (PDF) Deep Alpha is the code name for a female trader (still notable in the male-dominated trading world) with multiple decades of experience in markets. Having transitioned from floor trader to day trader to hedge fund manager, DA is now spreading her wings in the discreet world of family office management — hence the code name for this interview — where capital allocation runs into the hundreds of millions to billions… Click to access