Felix is looking on the money so far. From Felix Zulauf’s Market Prognosis, one of the smartest things we read last week: Legendary Swiss investor Felix Zulauf believes that the current rally in risk assets is likely to last until at least the end of March, but that global sharemarkets will again succumb to downward [...]

After last week’s Federal Reserve announcement, investors are mentally adjusting to an extended ZIRP mentality — three more years of Zero Interest Rate Policy (’til the end of 2014). The jobless rate is near a three year low, but that’s still too high for the powers that be. So what are some of the consequences [...]

In a historic move — and some would say a total ambush — S&P chose to downgrade the U.S. credit rating Friday night. (We should perhaps send them a thank-you note, having maintained significant short positions in the Live Feed, after partial profit scale-outs last week.) What does the downgrade mean for the coming days, [...]

Lots of folks are tweaked at the Tea Party — like joltin’ Joe Biden and the House Democrats. From Politico: Vice President Joe Biden joined House Democrats in lashing tea party Republicans Monday, accusing them of having “acted like terrorists” in the fight over raising the nation’s debt limit. Biden was agreeing with a line [...]

Bill Gross (aka the bond king) is starting to get a little desperate. Three months ago we asked, Did PIMCO call a bottom in Treasuries? Since then USTs have gone up — and yields have fallen substantially. This made the bond king look bad — especially when it came out that PIMCO had a net [...]

Stock market bulls were rocked by global slowdown fears this week. But for a true bearish wake-up call, consider this — stock market historian Russell Napier thinks the “real bear market in the S&P is yet to come,” and that the ultimate target could be S&P 400. As in, roughly 70% off current levels. Napier [...]

It had recently been argued there is a $20 per barrel “speculative premium” built into the price of oil. (Via Niels Jensen, citing Frank Veneroso of Veneroso Associates.) If so, nearly half that premium was evaporated in a single trading session, via Thursday’s commodity complex carnage. (Will cinco de mayo be remembered as a day [...]

In a zero interest rate environment, we can think about market participants in two groups: Those who are taking risk because they can. Those who are taking risk because they have to. These are not the traditional buckets. Normally the dividing lines run retail versus institutional… investor versus trader… value versus growth or what have [...]

How to describe this market? Vin Diesel in the new “Fast Five” trailer has as good a line as any: “Chances are, sooner or later, we’re going to wind up behind bars or buried in a ditch somewhere. But not today…” On Wednesday the bottom dropped out of the dollar. The VIX (as tracked by [...]

On Monday April 11th, the following commentary was posted in the Mercenary Live Feed: Some will argue any oil decline is a “buy the dip” opportunity before flare-up rages further. This may be true, but it is not a lock by any means. As the speculative vanguard, small caps are a tell that this decline [...]

In a very news-heavy week, a notable item was PIMCO’s decision to purge U.S. government debt from its flagship fund. As Bloomberg reports, Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., eliminated government-related debt from his flagship fund last month as the U.S. projected record budget deficits. Pimco’s $237 [...]