Think Like a Scientist

August 29, 2013
By
Vault
 

“…It seems to me what is called for is an exquisite balance between two conflicting needs: the most skeptical scrutiny of all hypotheses that are served up to us and at the same time a great openness to new ideas … If you are only skeptical, then no new ideas make it through to you … On the other hand, if you are open to the point of gullibility and have not an ounce of skeptical sense in you, then you cannot distinguish the useful ideas from the worthless ones.”

“…In science it often happens that scientists say, “You know that’s a really good argument; my position is mistaken,” and then they would actually change their minds and you never hear that old view from them again. They really do it. It doesn’t happen as often as it should, because scientists are human and change is sometimes painful. But it happens every day. I cannot recall the last time something like that happened in politics or religion.”

“…Science invites us to let the facts in, even when they don’t conform to our preconceptions. It counsels us to carry alternative hypotheses in our heads and see which ones best match the facts. It urges on us a fine balance between no-holds-barred openness to new ideas, however heretical, and the most rigorous skeptical scrutiny of everything — new ideas and established wisdom. We need wide appreciation of this kind of thinking. It works.”

“…The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counterintuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what’s true. We have a method, and that method helps us to reach not absolute truth, only asymptotic approaches to the truth — never there, just closer and closer, always finding vast new oceans of undiscovered possibilities. Cleverly designed experiments are the key.”

- Carl Sagan

JS Comment:

Carl Sagan could have been a great trader. He certainly understood the need for objectivity — not just on a surface level, but deep in his bones.

Scientists are human beings, and as such, do not always live up to the scientific ideal. But as a benchmark — a standard to strive for — the ideal itself is incredibly powerful.

As Dr. Richard Feynman, one of the greatest minds of the 20th century, put it: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.”

Recent Trading Wisdom (scroll for archives)

Vault
 

p.s. follow us on Stocktwits & Twitter! @MercenaryJack and @MercenaryMike

Like this article? Share!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


Current ye@r *